Is cloud inevitable, and is that such a bad thing?
January 12th, 2010I was about to submit a request for a feature in the webmail software I use when I got lost in link-land. I stumbled upon the “Executive Blog” for VMware.
http://blogs.vmware.com/console/2010/01/vmware-to-acquire-zimbra.html
It turns out that today my webmail suite was purchased by VMware. In the blog VMware’s CTO explains how the acquisition of an open-source email is directly in line with their vision of advancing cloud-computing and simplifying IT for everyone. I couldn’t agree more on this cause, as everyday computing has become too complex and for everyday users to make sense of. There are far too many applications written for systems today for any one user or administrator to wrap their heads around. While all of these great new applications are innovative in many ways, the issue of information overload continues to grow in direct proportion to the number of new applications.
There is no longer any time for a system administrator to become intimate with a piece of software. Particularly if that system admin is required to use an additional dozen applications to help maintain that single piece of software. The best example of this is Exchange. All email systems are generally the same, I just happen to have the most experience with Exchange. Not only do I have to understand all the inner workings of Exchange, it is generally a requisite of an email admin’s job to know the client software. So now I need to understand Outlook, Thunderbird, and Entourage. And of course Outlook Web Access. And don’t forget the different versions. Some places still have Outlook 2000 and XP clients.
So I have the server software and half a dozen client applications to understand. There is also the need to maintain consistent and reliable backups. So that is at the minimum another application. In an enterprise environment third-party software is likely used since Windows Backup isn’t the greatest solution available. Regardless of the backup solution, knowledge of an additional application is necessary.
And since I’m using email administration as my example, I can’t forget to mention spam. Spam and junkmail are accounting for up to 90.4% of the traffic running around the internet! (see previous post Permanent Link to Junkmail has to be stopped). With this much junkmail you MUST have some sort of antivirus and spam filtering software on your servers. Another application is added. Sometimes spam and junk filtering isn’t enough, you have server-level A/V on your systems that needs to be managed, and you might have a firewall to contend with, SPF filters, reverse dns records, disclaimer products, mobile devices, Blackberry Servers, archiving, e-discovery, and the list goes on. Not only do you have all this software that goes into making a reliable, functional, distinctive, and hopefully seamless solution for your customers, but you also have all that support software you have to call up when something goes wrong.
Coming back around to the original topic of cloud and whether it is a bad thing, I heard the argument recently that cloud will destroy the competitive nature of software, and stifle innovation. The argument supporting this follows the logic that once everyone agrees on a particular platform such as linux, and agrees that all code from here until the end of time will run on linux, that innovation and creativity will lapse as a side-effect. The direction the argument was making is that cloud computing will not come to fruition, and once companies realize this they will stop pursuing cloud, and refocus on what makes their software solutions different.
My argument doesn’t take an entirely contradictory stance to this idea. I do believe that if a common platform is ever agreed upon, that innovation in that platform will slow down. This will mainly be due to any innovations made to the core platform will likely be excluded from the majority of systems. Because any innovation outside of the core platform will not be beneficial to every single system the innovation is therefore superfluous to the core. There would be likely few if any dramatic recreations or modifications of that single core platform.
Where my argument differs is that the core platform itself, and IT as most people have come to think about it will stop existing as we know it today. I don’t believe that large companies, corporations or institutions will ever outsource their IT infrastructure completely. Regardless of the price savings of software as a service, large entities will always want in-house and custom tailored solutions that can provide a competitive edge against their rivals. Where cloud computing and software as a service are really unstoppable is the consumer market. No regular consumer wants to worry about upgrading their motherboard every time a new OS comes out. With as many stories floating around about everyone not having enough time, people will start to realize that having to manage their own computers is a daunting chore. And that chore is going to continue to get worse and worse for the end consumer. As the OS field gets more and more fragmented between Linux, Mac, Windows, and Google, fewer and fewer people will be able to call in their friends in IT to help with a problem. This will lead to a revolt on the current business model by word of mouth spreading between non technical people as to what is easiest. I don’t think it will take more than 5 to 10 years before consumers have figured out that their time is being robbed by having to know what the heck a driver is. Why should a standard user ever have to know what a driver is! Why should they? So they can update it themselves?
Let me put it to you this way: How many people know how to change the oil in their car? A few.. maybe even half of the people who own cars. But how many people actually change their own oil? I imagine the number is far less than half. People can pay an insignificant fee every 6 months and have someone else do all the work. There is an argument that you could save a few dollars by doing it yourself. But I believe that having someone else do the work, and particularly having a “professional” do the work for you, frees you from something that would have spent your free time, and caused you to have to learn something completely outside your passions and professional career. Unless you work on cars either for a hobby or for a living, I doubt you change your own oil with much frequency.
It is that realization that consumers and end-users do not need to know what is under the hood of their computer, which makes me believe that cloud is coming and it is a force to be reckoned with. It will not hit large corporations. It will not hit institutions that have dedicated staff who make the IT decisions and strategies for them. It will hit consumers and small businesses. People that are spending more and more of their time doing less and less of what they need to be doing so they can live their lives and make a paycheck. Cloud is coming with a vengeance if you are not looking out.
I envy the future of the IT consumer. IT will become a household utility no different than gas or electricity. Just like the TV it will be synonymous with the American household, and no one will have any need or idea how to fix it themselves. But unlike the TV there will be no need to call the “computer repair man” because the cloud company that leased the unit, provided the internet connection, and supports the device, has already received a notification that there is a problem, and there is already a technician on the way.
I say pay the professionals to deliver a service! Let them deal with knowing and understanding what applications there are.
